Bài giảng Kinh tế vĩ mô nâng cao - Chương 18: Cung tiền và cầu tiền

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  1. 04/01/2016 C H A P T E R 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền MACROECONOMICS SIXTH EDITION N. GREGORY MANKIW PowerPointđ Slides by Ron Cronovich â 2007 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved Trong chương này chỳng ta sẽ học về . . Hệ thống ngõn hàng tạo tiện như thế nào? . 3 cỏch mà NHTW cú thể kiểm soỏt được cung tiền và chỉ ra tại sao NHTW khụng thể kiểm soỏt một cỏch chớnh xỏc? . Lý thuyết về cầu tiền . a portfolio theory . a transactions theory: the Baumol-Tobin model CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 1 Banks’ role in the money supply . The money supply equals currency plus demand (checking account) deposits: M = C + D . Since the money supply includes demand deposits, the banking system plays an important role. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 2 1
  2. 04/01/2016 A few preliminaries . Reserves (R): the portion of deposits that banks have not lent. . A bank’s liabilities include deposits, assets include reserves and outstanding loans. . 100-percent-reserve banking: a system in which banks hold all deposits as reserves. . Fractional-reserve banking: a system in which banks hold a fraction of their deposits as reserves. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 3 SCENARIO 1: No banks With no banks, D = 0 and M = C = $1000. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 4 SCENARIO 2: 100-percent reserve banking . Initially C = $1000, D = $0, M = $1,000. . Now suppose households deposit the $1,000 at “Firstbank.” . After the deposit, FIRSTBANK’S C = $0, balance sheet D = $1,000, Assets Liabilities M = $1,000. reserves $1,000 deposits $1,000 . 100%-reserve banking has no impact on size of money supply. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 5 2
  3. 04/01/2016 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking . Suppose banks hold 20% of deposits in reserve, making loans with the rest. . Firstbank will make $800 in loans. FIRSTBANK’S The money supply now equals $1,800: balance sheet Assets Liabilities . Depositor has $1,000 in reserves $1200,000 deposits $1,000 demand deposits. loans $800 . Borrower holds $800 in currency. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 6 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking Thus, in a fractional-reserve banking system, banks create money. FIRSTBANK’S The money supply now equals $1,800: balance sheet Assets Liabilities . Depositor has $1,000 in reserves $200 deposits $1,000 demand deposits. loans $800 . Borrower holds $800 in currency. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 7 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking . Suppose the borrower deposits the $800 in Secondbank. . Initially, Secondbank’s balance sheet is: SECONDBANK’S . Secondbank will balance sheet loan 80% of this Assets Liabilities deposit. reserves $800160 deposits $800 loans $0640 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 8 3
  4. 04/01/2016 SCENARIO 3: Fractional-reserve banking . If this $640 is eventually deposited in Thirdbank, . then Thirdbank will keep 20% of it in reserve, and loan the rest out: THIRDBANK’S balance sheet Assets Liabilities reserves $640128 deposits $640 loans $0512 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 9 Finding the total amount of money: Original deposit = $1000 + Firstbank lending = $ 800 + Secondbank lending = $ 640 + Thirdbank lending = $ 512 + other lending Total money supply = (1/rr ) $1,000 where rr = ratio of reserves to deposits In our example, rr = 0.2, so M = $5,000 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 10 Money creation in the banking system A fractional reserve banking system creates money, but it doesn’t create wealth: Bank loans give borrowers some new money and an equal amount of new debt. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 11 4
  5. 04/01/2016 A model of the money supply exogenous variables . Monetary base, B = C + R controlled by the central bank . Reserve-deposit ratio, rr = R/D depends on regulations & bank policies . Currency-deposit ratio, cr = C/D depends on households’ preferences CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 12 Solving for the money supply: CD MCD B m B B where CD m B CD CDDD cr 1 CR CDRD cr rr CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 13 The money multiplier cr 1 M m B , where m cr rr . If rr 1 . If monetary base changes by B, then M = m B . m is the money multiplier, the increase in the money supply resulting from a one-dollar increase in the monetary base. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 14 5
  6. 04/01/2016 Exercise cr 1 M m B , where m cr rr Suppose households decide to hold more of their money as currency and less in the form of demand deposits. 1. Determine impact on money supply. 2. Explain the intuition for your result. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 15 Solution to exercise Impact of an increase in the currency-deposit ratio cr > 0. 1. An increase in cr increases the denominator of m proportionally more than the numerator. So m falls, causing M to fall. 2. If households deposit less of their money, then banks can’t make as many loans, so the banking system won’t be able to “create” as much money. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 16 Three instruments of monetary policy 1. Open-market operations 2. Reserve requirements 3. The discount rate CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 17 6
  7. 04/01/2016 Open-market operations . definition: The purchase or sale of government bonds by the Federal Reserve. . how it works: If Fed buys bonds from the public, it pays with new dollars, increasing B and therefore M. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 18 Reserve requirements . definition: Fed regulations that require banks to hold a minimum reserve-deposit ratio. . how it works: Reserve requirements affect rr and m: If Fed reduces reserve requirements, then banks can make more loans and “create” more money from each deposit. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 19 The discount rate . definition: The interest rate that the Fed charges on loans it makes to banks. . how it works: When banks borrow from the Fed, their reserves increase, allowing them to make more loans and “create” more money. The Fed can increase B by lowering the discount rate to induce banks to borrow more reserves from the Fed. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 20 7
  8. 04/01/2016 Which instrument is used most often? . Open-market operations: most frequently used. . Changes in reserve requirements: least frequently used. . Changes in the discount rate: largely symbolic. The Fed is a “lender of last resort,” does not usually make loans to banks on demand. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 21 Why the Fed can’t precisely control M cr 1 M m B , where m cr rr . Households can change cr, causing m and M to change. . Banks often hold excess reserves (reserves above the reserve requirement). If banks change their excess reserves, then rr, m, and M change. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 22 CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s . From 1929 to 1933, . Over 9,000 banks closed. . Money supply fell 28%. . This drop in the money supply may have caused the Great Depression. It certainly contributed to the severity of the Depression. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 23 8
  9. 04/01/2016 CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s cr 1 M m B , where m cr rr . Loss of confidence in banks cr m . Banks became more cautious rr m CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 24 CASE STUDY: Bank failures in the 1930s August 1929 March 1933 % change M 26.5 19.0 –28.3% C 3.9 5.5 41.0 D 22.6 13.5 –40.3 B 7.1 8.4 18.3 C 3.9 5.5 41.0 R 3.2 2.9 –9.4 m 3.7 2.3 –37.8 rr 0.14 0.21 50.0 cr 0.17 0.41 141.2 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 25 Could this happen again? . Many policies have been implemented since the 1930s to prevent such widespread bank failures. . E.g., Federal Deposit Insurance, to prevent bank runs and large swings in the currency-deposit ratio. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 26 9
  10. 04/01/2016 Money Demand Two types of theories . Portfolio theories . emphasize “store of value” function . relevant for M2, M3 . not relevant for M1. (As a store of value, M1 is dominated by other assets.) . Transactions theories . emphasize “medium of exchange” function . also relevant for M1 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 27 A simple portfolio theory d e (M / P ) = L( rs , r b , , W ), where rs = expected real return on stocks rb = expected real return on bonds e = expected inflation rate W = real wealth CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 28 The Baumol-Tobin Model . a transactions theory of money demand . notation: Y = total spending, done gradually over the year i = interest rate on savings account N = number of trips consumer makes to the bank to withdraw money from savings account F = cost of a trip to the bank (e.g., if a trip takes 15 minutes and consumer’s wage = $12/hour, then F = $3) CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 29 10
  11. 04/01/2016 Money holdings over the year Money holdings N = 1 Y Average = Y/ 2 1 Time CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 30 Money holdings over the year Money holdings N = 2 Y Y/ 2 Average = Y/ 4 1/2 1 Time CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 31 Money holdings over the year Money holdings N = 3 Y Average Y/ 3 = Y/ 6 1/3 2/3 1 Time CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 32 11
  12. 04/01/2016 The cost of holding money . In general, average money holdings = Y/2N . Foregone interest = i (Y/2N ) . Cost of N trips to bank = F N . Thus, Y total cost = i F N 2N . Given Y, i, and F, consumer chooses N to minimize total cost CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 33 Finding the cost-minimizing N Cost Foregone interest = iY/2N Cost of trips = FN Total cost N* N CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 34 Finding the cost-minimizing N Y total cost = i F N 2N . Take the derivative of total cost with respect to N, set it equal to zero: i Y F 0 2N 2 . Solve for the cost-minimizing N* i Y N * 2F CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 35 12
  13. 04/01/2016 The money demand function i Y . The cost-minimizing value of N : N * 2F . To obtain the money demand function, plug N* into the expression for average money holdings: YF average money holding 2i . Money demand depends positively on Y and F, and negatively on i. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 36 The money demand function . The Baumol-Tobin money demand function: YF (M/,, P )d = L ( i Y F ) 2i How this money demand function differs from previous chapters: . B-T shows how F affects money demand. . B-T implies: income elasticity of money demand = 0.5, interest rate elasticity of money demand = 0.5 CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 37 EXERCISE: The impact of ATMs on money demand During the 1980s, automatic teller machines became widely available. How do you think this affected N* and money demand? Explain. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 38 13
  14. 04/01/2016 Financial Innovation, Near Money, and the Demise of the Monetary Aggregates . Examples of financial innovation: . many checking accounts now pay interest . very easy to buy and sell assets . mutual funds are baskets of stocks that are easy to redeem - just write a check . Non-monetary assets having some of the liquidity of money are called near money. . Money & near money are close substitutes, and switching from one to the other is easy. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 39 Financial Innovation, Near Money, and the Demise of the Monetary Aggregates . The rise of near money makes money demand less stable and complicates monetary policy. . 1993: the Fed switched from targeting monetary aggregates to targeting the Federal Funds rate. . This change may help explain why the U.S. economy was so stable during the rest of the 1990s. CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền slide 40 Chapter Summary 1. Fractional reserve banking creates money because each dollar of reserves generates many dollars of demand deposits. 2. The money supply depends on the . monetary base . currency-deposit ratio . reserve ratio 3. The Fed can control the money supply with . open market operations . the reserve requirement . the discount rate CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 41 14
  15. 04/01/2016 Chapter Summary 4. Portfolio theories of money demand . stress the store of value function . posit that money demand depends on risk/return of money & alternative assets 5. The Baumol-Tobin model . a transactions theory of money demand, stresses “medium of exchange” function . money demand depends positively on spending, negatively on the interest rate, and positively on the cost of converting non-monetary assets to money CHƯƠNG 18 Cung tiền và cầu tiền CHAPTER 18 Money Supply and Money Demand slide 42 15